The M5 competition: Conclusions

نویسندگان

چکیده

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides loans to countries in economic crises as a lender of last resort. IMF loan approvals are tied policy reforms and quantitative targets that reflect the IMF’s crisis assessment. An extensive literature scrutinizes efficacy programs, instead, we examine accuracy assessments (nowcasts) predicate program designs. Analyzing an unprecedented 602 programs from 1992 2019, contradict previous findings nowcasts generally optimistic. Disentangling structure nowcast bias, find systematically overestimates high-growth recoveries GDPs, while low-growth for low-income (LICs) underestimated. In contrast, non-LICs’ exhibit no statistically significant optimistic pessimistic bias. Interestingly, shorter horizons do not improve accuracy, GDP growth improved substantially since 2013, inflation remain inefficient. We also isolate sources inefficiencies according ((i) objectives, ((ii) conditionality type, ((iii) geographic regions, ((iv) global crises, ((v) geopolitics (elections, conflicts, disasters).

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1872-8200', '0169-2070']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.04.006